Who Will Rise From The South To Represent In The Playoffs?
Back in 2015, it was a popular opinion that the NFC South was to be the toughest division in the NFL. It featured the likes of the assumed Hall Of Fame-worthy Drew Brees, the unflappable Matt Ryan, a charismatic and dangerous Cam Newton, and an assuredly up-and-coming future All-Pro in Jameis Winston. All expected to lead their respective teams deep into the playoffs and challenge for a Super Bowl title.
Well, while there was some validity to the claim, it didn’t last long.
Newton had led his Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015. And even though they came up short, they were expected to return to the big game sooner than later. “Matty Ice” and his top-ranked offense made it to the Super Bowl the following season only to lose in the most embarrassing fashion in recent sports memory. The Buccaneers only had a glimpse of being a contender with Winston at the helm in 2016. And if they hadn’t literally given away 5 games and made the playoffs, this would be a completely different narrative for both the team and the division. Brees saw his team make it to the playoffs in 2017 as they pulled off an almost-Atlantan-level blunder in the waning moments of the Divisional Round game against the Vikings.
By the end of the 2017 season, the notion of being the toughest division in the NFL was flipped on its head. New Orleans was the clear-cut best in the South. They were the only team in the division to boast a winning record from 2017 through 2019, thus claiming the NFC South title each year. The other teams in the division got shaken up with coaching changes and major injuries causing them to shift their focus and, ultimately, their expectations.
Fast forward to the 2021 season. There’s no more Brees. He’s at the NBC Sports desk analyzing games now.
Cam left the division. He was selling top hats and cigars after being released by Carolina and a brief stint in New England.
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Winston and Ryan’s presence is still felt in the division. But, Winston went on the be the hopeful savior for New Orleans. That was short-lived as he went down with a season-ending injury in Week 8. Whether or not he continues his career in the Crescent City is a mystery as today. That makes Matt Ryan the lone survivor of the once-heralded group of QBs. And he’s just barely surviving while every week he and his squad seem to face post-traumatic stress disorder as they routinely find themselves blowing leads in the grandest of fashion.
Oh yea…And Tampa now has the most revered QB of the last twenty years who was at the helm when the BUCS went on to win the Super Bowl in 2020.
We’ve reached the midway point of the season and somehow the NFC South is poised to have more playoff-bound teams than one could have imagined. It’s still super early to seriously talk about playoff seeding. But, for entertainment purposes only, let’s look at what the NFL Playoff tree would look like if the season ended today.
Looking to the second half of the season, it’s certainly possible that the NFC South could go on to be represented by two teams in the playoffs. It’s largely assumed that the BUCS will definitely be representing the division one way or another. Overall, Tampa has the most talented roster in the division and, arguably, the most talent in the entire NFL. Even with the current injuries, that argument can be made.
Offensively, the BUCS still have the 1-2 punch of Evans and Godwin at wide receiver. That alone puts them at the top of the NFC South when it comes to offensive weapons. Both Godwin and Evans have racked up over 500 yards so far. No WR1/WR2 combination in the division even comes close. There are plenty of others in the reserve roles that are capable of being highly productive on offense as well. They’ve just not been utilized to full effect or even half-effect yet for one reason or another. The likes of O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Tyler Johnson would be featured starters on any other team in the division. And that’s just the passing game while missing Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown.
Just wait until someone actually makes the decision to unleash their best running back.
On the defensive side of things, the BUCS rank 13th overall in the League. That makes them the 3rd best defense in the division….as of now. Tampa has been missing its CB1, CB2, and its CB3 for much of the season. Hence, the pass defense hasn’t been as strong as it could be. The run defense, on the other hand, has pretty much picked up where it left off last season. Teams have abandoned any plans to run against that front seven consisting of Suh, Vea, Gholston, Pierre-Paul, Barrett, White, and the returning Lavonte David. They’ve seen the fewest rushing attempts in the League. And they’ve given up the 2nd fewest rush yards.
While both sides of the ball have their challenges for the remainder of the season, look for the BUCS to be carried into the playoffs on the strength of its defense once again. The defense faces a Top 10 offense just two more times this season(Buffalo, Indianapolis) while the BUCS offense faces a Top 10 defense four times(Buffalo, New Orleans, Carolina x 2). And the offense has struggled mightily against good defenses.
Record: 6-2
Toughest Remaining Opponents:
Carolina started off the season as one of the hottest teams in the entire NFL winning their first three games. The talk of their success was surrounded by both the defensive dominance as well as the newly acquired talent at QB with the addition of Sam Darnold.
That defense boasts some talent that can be trouble for any of its opposition going forward this season. Brian Burns(DE) and Derrick Brown(DT) are more than a handful on the defensive line. Behind them is one of the League’s most dangerous pass rushers this season in Hassan Reddick(OLB). Only 5 players have more than his 8.5 sacks this season. Next to him is Shaq Thompson, one of the better pass coverage LBs in the NFL. Backing that front seven group is one of the best CB duos around consisting of Donte Jackson and veteran prized free agent signee Stephon Gilmore.
That’s a lot of talent at each level of the defense. And it was a big reason for the 3-0 start to the season.
But, since context matters, it has to be pointed out that those first three games were against two of the weakest offenses in the NFL led by rookie quarterbacks Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Davis Mills of the Houston Texans. The other win was against a Jameis Winston-led New Orleans team. In those three games, the defense dominated and kept their opponents to 14 points or less. Since then, Carolina’s opponents have averaged 25.5 points per game as the Panthers have gone 1-6.
But, that’s not all on the defense. Carolina currently ranks 4th in giveaways. And 3 of their 6 recent losses have been one-possession games with multiple turnovers. If losing a bunch of games despite having a talented defense and relatively solid offense is something that looks eerily familiar, you might be a BUCS fan.
That new quarterback smell of Sam Darnold has worn off. He’s now tied for the most interceptions thrown this season(11). And he’s only thrown 4 touchdowns since that magical win streak to start to the season. At one point, Darnold led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Since that time in Week 4, he’s been held out of the end zone as a runner.
Darnold suffered an injury in the Week 9 game against New England. So, he’s gonna be out of the picture for a few weeks. Still, the Panthers have a few guys that can possibly put up some decent production. Oddly enough, their biggest strength may be the collection of running backs on the roster.
Christian McCaffrey, who’s working himself back from injury, is still seen a potent offensive weapon. He was once considered an MVP frontrunner a year ago. Also, there’s fellow dual threat running back rookie Chuba Hubbard who shares a similar skill set as McCaffrey though he’s one or two levels below him right now. And then there’s Royce Freeman and the newly-acquired Ameer Abdullah. Both highly productive players in college who have yet to find their footing in their young careers.
As far as wide receivers go, it’s all Curtis Samuel. Roby Anderson, their WR2, just barely has over 200 yards on the season.
With PJ Walker, the former standout of the XFL, stepping in for Darnold, Carolina has just as much of a shot righting their ship with some semblance of stability as it does going completely belly up for the remainder of the season. Pay attention to how well that defense performs if they don’t have to contend with so many turnovers from its own offense.
******UPDATE 9/11 10a
With the return of Cam Newton, the Panthers’ chances to make a playoff push substantially increase. Still, it must be noted that he’s not been the same dual threat he was in his initial stint in Carolina. He’s suffered injuries that forced him away from the organization back and in 209 and limited his stay in New England in 2020.
Plus, he’s walking into a new system as former head coach Ron Rivera has moved on to coach that Washington Football Team. I forget their name.
Record: 4-5
Toughest Remaining Opponents:
That team down in New Orleans has a situation very much like the one in Charlotte, NC. They’ve what looks to be a stout defense capable of carrying them to wins or at the very least, keep them in contention. They, too, are looking to move forward with a backup QB after their own recycled former franchise QB project was halted due to injury. But unlike Carolina, their former franchise QB isn’t likely to be walking back in that locker room.
However, New Orleans is led by a proven head coach and offensive play-caller. For the vast majority of Payton’s existence, he was bolstered by a QB that learned to manage the games and make smart decisions. This year started out with many questioning if Payton can find success with someone not named Drew Brees for an extended period of time. Well, take two is up. The first take saw an impressive and shocking win against Green Bay to kick off the season. It continued with 4 more wins in the following 7 games.
But, all of those wins were predicated on the performance of the Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen’s group. That 5th ranked defense has been taking over games while the offense has been drastically different than what Payton has been known for.
Most notably was the lack of passing attempts. Through the first 7 weeks, the Saints passed the ball fewer than any other team in the League. Even though they were missing their number one wide receiver in Michael Thomas, it may have been strange to see the team all but abandon the passing attack. But if you paid attention, you expected it. You knew Payton wasn’t gonna allow a player to throw games away. And so he reigned in his QB and selectively took shots down the field while primarily running the ball and utilizing short screen passes and dump-offs to the running back.
Alvin Kamara was pretty close to being the entire offense. He has 146 rushing attempts and 32 receptions. He leads them in both rushing and receiving yard. After seeing that they were running Kamara into the ground due to his being the leading receiver in pass yards as well as the leading running back, they went acquired former Saints RB Mark Ingram before the Week 8 game against Tampa.
Now, backup QB Trevor Siemian has another guy to hand it off to when the passing game downfield gets hairy. It’s still unclear how effective the passing game can be since the goal appeared to be centered around limiting the QB’s passing attempts. In his first start, Siemian was asked to throw the ball 41 times. That’s more than Winston had been asked all season. Make no mistake about it: Siemian wasn’t an All-World manager of the game himself. Prior to his arrival in New Orleans, he threw 30 touchdowns to 24 interceptions. That’s not great. It could be a matter of time before he turns into a pumpkin himself. Payton just may have his version of the Winston/Fitzpatrick rollercoaster that took place in Tampa in 2018.
It’s important to note that New Orleans does have some young talent at wide receiver and at the tight end positions. Juwan Johnson(TE) and Trequan Smith(WR) are notable young talent on the roster. It’s gonna be curious to see if the playbook opens and if their guys actually get more targets now having to move one without Winston who had been synonymous with interceptions for his entire career. As of this writing, only Deonte Harris(WR) averages 40 yards or more per game.
Still, it’s the defense in the N.O. that could drive them to the postseason. You know the names. Demario Davis, Malcolm Jenkins, Lattimore, Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan, and Michael Evans’ best friend Marshon Lattimore. Through the midway point of the year, they’re a Top 5 unit. They’ve got some stiff competition to finish the season though. And they could see the same hardships that Carolina face if their QB succumbs to pressure and starts giving the ball away and/or if the Zoom & Boom combination at running back stalls out. For now, that #1 rushing defense is forcing teams to throw the ball. And that secondary is making them pay to the tune of 11 interceptions. Good for #2 in the League.
If the Saints make it to the playoffs, look no further than that defense as the reason why.
Record: 5-3
Toughest Remaining Opponents:
In Atlanta, they got off to a rough start. They had to contend with two of the most potent offenses in the League(Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) right off the back. Both resulting in losses. But since then, the Falcons have quietly gone 4-2.
In what has become true Falcons fashion, it seems every game has been a nail-biter. Every game has been decided by 7 points or less. And no lead ever feels safe in an Atlanta game.
Of all the teams in the NFC South, the Falcons may have the most interesting road to a possible playoff berth. Atlanta is the only team that doesn’t have at least an average defense to combat its opponents. And, like the BUCS, they still have to face four Top 10 offenses to finish the season. Unlike the BUCS though, they’ll be fielding one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL(points allowed).
The Falcons do have some talented defensive players on their roster. Guys like Grady Jarrett(DT), Dante Fowler(OLB), and Deion Jones(MLB) have made a name for themselves over the years. They’ve also got some up-and-comers like AJ Terrell(CB), Marlon Davidson(DE), and Isaiah Oliver(CB).
But, the defense isn’t particularly strong in either the passing game or against the run. So, they may always be in a firefight.
What makes them the interesting darkhorse for the presumed 2nd NFC South spot in the playoffs is the fact they’ve got the second-best QB situation despite currently having the 21st ranked offense. That gives them the 3rd best offense in the division. Again, that’s with nine games to go. With the injuries to the Carolina and New Orleans QBs, this is likely to change by the time the playoffs actually do roll around.
Matt Ryan may or may not be without his top WR option in Calvin Ridley for a while as he deals with personal issues off the field. But, like we saw against New Orleans, there are other targets for the 36-year old vet. There may not be any bigger weapon in his arsenal than Cordarrelle Patterson who has been utilized as a kick returner, a wide receiver, and as a running back. And he’s been productive in each role. Besides him, you’ve got one of the biggest stories of the 2021 draft in Kyle Pitts who has not disappointed. He’s on pace for over 1,000 yards receiving. The touchdowns haven’t come as easily as he’s only pulled in one so far.
Their running game is led by the aforementioned Patterson and Mike Davis. It may not strike fear in the hearts of opponents. The fact that Patterson could be in any position at any time can give opponents just enough to think about that they pause and think when they should be reacting. And that scare tactic can become a big advantage for a limited offense going forward.
If Ryan can get back to his “Matty Ice” moniker and keep his cool long enough to not give games away, he just may be able to steer his squad into the postseason.
Record: 4-4
Toughest Remaining Opponents:
Thangs done changed since 2015. After having a short stint of QB dominance in the division, with all the surrounding circumstances, it’s looking like each team may be leaning on its respective defense to make the push to the 2021 NFL Playoffs more than anything else. The remaining 9 games are gonna are gonna be an interesting study in the NFC South.
