With No More Surprise ElementS, Will Washington’s Offense Still Be A Problem?
Taylor Heinicke made a name for himself when he stepped out of the checkout line of Whole Foods or wherever he was and into the replacement starting QB role in the 2020 Playoffs against the BUCS.
Heinicke put on an admirable performance by not allowing himself to be overwhelmed by the opportunity. He threw for over 300 yards and accounted for 2 TDs. One in the air and one as a ball carrier. The performance earned him a new contract with Washington(2yr/$4.75M) as became something of folklore for sports fans and media.
Fast forward to Week 10 of the 2021 season and a lot of that adulation has worn off quite a bit as he and the team have fallen on hard times.
Washington is on a 4-game losing streak. Heinicke hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs since Week 4. He’s thrown 6 INTs in that time. And he’s been sacked 11 times.
Heinicke has been displaying some really bad habits now that there’s some game video of him to study. Even though has a completion percentage of 63.9, that shouldn’t fool you into thinking he’s accurate. He tends to throw balls off target with regularity. His throws are often behind his receivers. Especially, in the middle of the field. He tends to go to the well far too often if he gets lucky with throws.
But, he’s still got enough ability to be considered a capable playmaker. He’ll take off quickly if his targets can’t get open causing the secondary to work overtime. He’ll keep looking to throw the ball when he gets out of the pocket. So, there’s always the threat of someone getting loose behind the CBs in an extended play.
In a way, Heinicke is much like former Tampa QB Jamies Winston. Though his running ability may be a bit more of a threat.
When it comes to defending a mobile QB that’s susceptible to making bad decisions, I’m fully expecting Bowles to implement a plan that implements a lot of pressure this time around. In the playoff matchup, Bowles sent either a CB or S to blitz 10 times. That resulted in 1 QB pressure. He also used a lot of soft zone coverage for much of the game to gauge what Heinicke was capable of as a passer. The result was Heinicke finding holes in the coverage after the pass rush didn’t make it home.
Well, this time around, Bowles will have his X-factor in the passing rush. Vita Vea will take the field and that should shake things up considerably. If the BUCS can get pressure up the middle and force Heinicke into scrambling early in the game, that should bode well for the secondary so long as they remain disciplined. At only 6ft tall, Heinicke struggles to stay in the pocket. And a push up the middle can make his life hell. Plus, the revelation of Jason Pierre-Paul’s difficulties with his rotator cuff should warrant the unleashing of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka who has seen limited snaps in recent weeks. He could have a big day chasing down an antsy QB like Heinicke. His tendency to bail to the right would lead him right to the young rookie who has no doubt been chomping at the bit to show more of what he can do.
I’ll be looking for a whole lot of exotic looks to mask the zone coverage. Defensive backs lined up as press coverage while keeping zone assignments.
If/when the BUCS do decide to match up man-to-man, it’s gonna be a fun watch.
Washington has some solid receivers on the roster. Unfortunately for them, they’re not that deep. Even more unfortunate for them, Curtis Samuel, their WR2 has been absent most of the season. He would’ve been playing in only his 3rd game this season if he were to take the field Sunday. When healthy, Samuel is definitely a threat. He ended 2020 with 851 yards. He’s a deep threat as well as a pain in the neck when it comes to yards after the catch. But, he’s been ruled out of the game with a shin injury late Friday.
However, Washington’s leading WR is one of the best in the League. Terry McLaurin can be a problem for anyone in 1-on-1 coverage. He’s got some of the best hands around and he can usually make something happen after the catch. He’s got a skillset similar t to Chris Godwin. But, at a bit of a lower level. Yet and still, he can rack up some big yards if not accounted for with double teams or effective zone coverage.
While he’s not a burner downfield, he’s got enough speed and technique to get himself free quite often. He’s benefitted from the scrambling of Heinicke this season. And he’s also routinely found himself bailing out his QB who hasn’t been the most accurate with passes.
I fully expect to see Jamel Dean lined up across from McLaurin a good bit of the game. But, it would be surprising to see Dean shadowing him for the entirety of the game. I wouldn’t expect it for a large portion of the game. But, when they do match up, look for Jamel Dean to get big opportunities to jump routes and come away with a few pass breakups and maybe even an INT due to the types of routes McLaurin tends to run and the inaccuracy of Heinicke .
Here are some of the route-running/pass-catching tendencies to pay attention to with McLaurin:
-Short right 14/23 ….61% success rate
-Short middle 8/8…. 100% success rate
-Short left 6/19 …. 32% success rate
-Deep right 1/7….. 14% success rate
-Deep middle 4/7…. 57% success rate
-Deep left 4/11 ….36% success rate
Washington runs the ball 41% of the time. That’s a bit more than what the BUCS opponents usually attempt. This can be contributed to having a somewhat mobile QB.
They feature Antonio Gibson, a former University of Memphis standout. In Memphis, Gibson was a triple threat as a WR, RB, and PR. He’s been used mostly as a ball carrier while in Washington. But, he still poses a threat as a receiver if called upon.
Gibson is quicker than fast. Meaning: he’s really shifty and he can make multiple moves laterally. But, unless he’s got a wide-open field, he’s not one to break for long runs. If he successfully gets space after shaking someone out of their socks, he can pick up big yards throughout the game.
Taylor Heinicke is the second-leading rusher in both yards(232) and attempts(36). Again, this goes back to his designed runs and scrambles.
The BUCS have once again become one of the most dominant run defenses in the League. Teams have only bothered to run the ball 33% of the time.
Going into Sunday’s matchup, the Team is surrendering 78 yards a game. That places them with the 2nd fewest in the League. The BUCS are only allowing 3.9 yards per carry which puts them at #5. Expect to see much of the same when it comes to Sunday’s game. I’ll be paying close attention to Devin White as he’ll have to stay both aggressive and disciplined in his attack having a mobile QB and dual-threat RB to defend.
Washington likes to utilize their run game out of the shotgun formation a great deal. This way, he can disguise their pass game that uses the RBs as much as any receiver not named McLaurin.
Here are the couple tendencies to watch for with Gibson as the ball carrier:
- Runs out of the Shotgun 65%
-Most successful running to the left
Bold Prediction
-Jamel Dean INT
-Antoine Winfield Jr. INT
-4 Sacks
Leave your gameday defensive predictions in the comments below.
