NFC South QB ARMS Race
The NFC South is, once again, one of the most intriguing divisions in the NFL. And that's mainly due to the stories surrounding the QBs taking the field.
Every team in the division will carefully navigate through speculation and possible controversy throughout the entire season. From the "Who's it gonna be?" in Carolina and Atlanta to the "Can he really do it?" in both New Orleans and Tampa, the development of the cast of characters in this particular sector of the League's 2022 season is one to keep an eye on.
Seeing Double In Atlanta?
For the first time in 14 years, Atlanta will usher in a new era at the QB position. Matt Ryan held down the fort for the Falcons until being traded to the Colts in May. He started in all but two games in his career while throwing 357 TDs for the franchise with 170 INTs. Availability and consistently throwing twice as many touchdowns as interceptions are the mark of a good, trustworthy quarterback. Unfortunately, both have been issues with Marcus Mariota, Ryan's initial replacement. Once thought of as a sure-shot franchise QB and possible #1 Overall Draft Pick, Mariota's stock has plummeted.
The turbulent conditions in the front office and the unstable coaching carousel in Tennessee were probably the most significant factors that led to Mariota's exit from Tennessee. He had four offensive coordinators in his five seasons as a Titan. Mariota is on his 3rd team since being drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft. He found himself in Las Vegas as an emergency backup QB and gadget play/decoy. Mariota was a dangerous dual-threat QB that was set to change the landscape of the entire AFC. Now, he's serving as a reclamation project and maybe just a stop-gap before the next Franchise QB hopeful takes the reins. And that guy may be on the roster already.
Desmond Ridder, the Falcons' 3rd pick of the 2022 draft, could be the QB to finish the season as the starter. Oddly enough, Ridder is almost a spitting image of Mariota. If you put on Mariota's highlights from Oregon and then watched Ridder's highlights from Cincinnati, you'd think it was the player. The one-read quick passes. The frequent QB Option keeps. From their physical stature to their skill set, which made them stand out at the collegiate level, these two are as close to identical as you can get. This could make it fairly easy to switch one out for the other in case something happens on the injury side of things.
Together, Mariota and Ridder will be the most mobile of the QB combinations in the division. And that could prove to be a dangerous weapon should Offensive Coordinator Dave Ragone decide to get creative. However, they probably have the most to prove.
Comeback Kid In Carolina??
The post-Cam Newton era continues in Charlotte after a brief cameo from the original star attraction.
Like Ryan in Atlanta, Newton held the QB position steady in Carolina for a long time. He, like Ryan, was consistent in his play. However, his game and his consistency came in a different form. Newton was a constant offensive threat because he was not only mobile but BIG and mobile. At 6'5, 245lbs, he was bigger than just about every CB and LB that tried to tackle him. Plus, Cam could outrun most of them. While he didn't have an incredible touchdown to interception ratio(186 to 113), his threat as a runner led to 573 total touchdowns(387 rushing/186 passing) as a Panther. From 2011 to 2021, he led the League in rushing TDs with a total of 75.
But injuries and age caught up with Cam. And his subsequent release from Carolina brought in former 1st Round Draft picks Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold over the next two seasons. Both were looking to get their careers back on track. Bridgewater was still trying to get his form back after suffering a horrific knee injury in Minnesota. He had served as a temporary backup/replacement option for Drew Brees in New Orleans for two seasons. After going 4-11 in his 15 starts as a Panther in 2020, Bridgewater was, too, released.
Darnold was jettisoned from New York after only three seasons even though he was the #3 Overall Draft Pick. He was traded to Carolina for a 2021 6th Round Pick plus a 2nd and 4th Round Pick in the 2022 draft. The turbulent start to his career will continue as he once again finds himself battling another high-profile QB. The Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, the former #1 Overall Draft Pick in the same draft class as Darnold.
It has yet to be seen what either could be with a stable system around them. Both have similar physical talents. And both have been somewhat marred by the indirection and inconsistencies around them. Sam Darnold had two different head coaches and two different offensive coordinators in his three seasons as a Jet. Mayfield had three head coaches and three separate offensive coordinators in his four years in Cleveland.
Mayfield has already been named the starter for Week 1. But given the amount of money invested in the position, it wouldn't be a stretch to believe that if Mayfield struggled early in the season, Darnold could get the call-up. Sam Darnold is scheduled to make $18.8M this season, while Mayfield will only count $4.8M against the cap. The team isn't committed to either after the 2022 season.
The Truth In New Orleans???
The Crescent City holds one of the biggest enigmas in all of the NFL. And it's all about the QB expected to be the starter.
Jameis Winston, another former #1 Overall Draft Pick trying to solidify his legitimacy in the NFC South this year. This season will be his third year in New Orleans after being relieved of his duties in Tampa. Winston's first year was spent learning under the tutelage of long-time Saint Drew Brees. Brees, too, had the experience of being released from the team he had spent his first five years of the NFL with and having something to prove. In 2006, Brees signed with the Saints after San Diego moved on and committed to Phillip Rivers. Brees spent the next 15 years as the primary field general for the offense and is regarded as a first-ballot Hall Of Famer.
Unlike Drew Brees, Winston's move to New Orleans came with serious questions about his ability beyond physical ailments or injuries. Winston's propensity for throwing interceptions was and still is a point of emphasis going into the 2022 season. While some will point to his 14 touchdowns with only three interceptions in the 2021 season as evidence of his growth as a passer; it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Before exiting the Week 8 matchup with the BUCS due to a torn ACL, Winston had the fewest passing attempts(161) of any starting QB in the League. That's about 20 pass attempts a game which is 14 fewer than the average NFL starting QB. It seemed as if the plan was to take the ball out of his hands and limit the number of times he could give away a game. It was adequate for seven games as the team went 5-2. But, it may not be sustainable for a seventeen-game season.
One of the most common stats that good quarterbacks share is the 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Most good QBs achieve this once in their first three seasons as a starter. It's taken some other QBs a 4th season. Drew Brees is one of the most notable. Entering his 7th year in the NFL, Winston has not yet hit this mark. This further pushes the narrative of his being a "turnover machine" and begs the question of whether or not he can be anything else this year if he plays an entire season.
It's not impossible to flip the script. At least for a season or two. His backup, Andy Dalton , didn't hit that golden ratio until his 5th year as a pro when he threw 25 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions in 2015. Dalton was the long-time starter in Cincinnati before seeing actions in Dallas and Chicago over the last two seasons. Dalton has the second-most experience as a starter in the NFC South behind Tom Brady. And he's navigated some pretty tough times and came out with winning records even though his performances weren't particularly great. If called upon, he could supplant Winston to end the season mainly because he's seen and done more in his ten years in the NFL.
What’s Next In Tampa????
In Tampa, the Buccaneers have the most renowned QB in the entire NFL. Tom Brady has at least twice the experience of anyone at the position. He's been under center for 7 Super Bowl-winning teams, including one in pewter and red.
Regarding personal stats, any 4yr stretch of Brady's career easily bests every other QB in the division. He's hit or beat the 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio 18 out of 22 years in the NFL. For two seasons, he only played one game.
Tom Brady's physical skills and abilities haven't broken down as many predicted years ago. He's still able to throw the deep ball just as well as he could years ago. He ran for his 5th-highest yardage total(81) last season at age 44. If he can stay upright in the pocket as he has for the past two seasons in Tampa, then he can, once again, be one of the top passers in all the NFL.
For the past five years, the question of Brady's age and health has been the most important question going into a season. This year, it's his commitment has been questioned. After a brief "retirement" where he stated he couldn't fully commit to giving 100% of himself to the game, Brady somehow found the will to give it a shot at least one more time. In addition, he stepped away for "personal reasons" during training camp, which prompted another few weeks of speculation about his desire to start and finish another season.
If there's any doubt about his intentions the finish the season, the Buccaneers should make a clear call on who and what Plan B would be. Going by the first two preseason games, it would appear the team is still leaning towards 10yr veteran Blaine Gabbert.
The current 1-2 punch at QB gives the BUCS the most veteran group in terms of years in the NFL. However, the actual game experience is another story.
Gabbert has only 48 starts in his career and a 13-35 record. He's served as a mentor and emergency backup in San Francisco, Arizona, and Tennessee after leaving Jacksonville as a top 10 Draft pick.
However, the BUCS could also insert Kyle Trask as the QB2. Trask spent his rookie season watching and learning. Trask isn't the most nimble athlete in the pocket, but he can move and extend plays. His accuracy has improved since his days at the University Of Florida. But, without an extended look with the first-team offense, it isn't easy to judge where he is.
He's shown just enough in the first two preseason games to pique the interest of many fans. With a more stable offensive line and a set of more capable offensive weapons at WR and TE, the second-year signal caller may be a playmaker if he got the call this season.
Of all the QB tandems in the NFC South, the BUCS, somehow, have the most successful and the most questionable.
