NFC South Arms Race 2023
Heading into the 2023 season, the NFC South’s QB situation is interesting, to say the least. The division has gone from being home to the NFL’s best and most promising up-and-comers to being a pitstop for second and third chances for veterans looking to prove a point and make good on their names.
For the first time in the division’s 21-year history, every NFC South team is set to start a different QB than the previous year.
Every team in the division is looking for answers at the QB position. From potential redemption stories in both New Orleans and Tampa to the youngsters being passed the torch burden in Carolina and Atlanta, the storylines behind each organization’s search for stability and even their identity are ones to keep an eye on.
RIDDER ON THE RISE IN ATL
In Year 2 of the post-Matt Ryan era, the Falcons find themselves in a pretty peculiar place.
Atlanta is seemingly going head-first with Desmond Ridder as the starter. If the 2nd year talent does indeed go into the season as the starter, he'd be the first QB not selected in the 1st Round to start for the Falcons since Chris Chandler in 2001. Oddly enough, he, too, was a 3rd Round pick.
Ridder essentially redshirted his rookie season. He didn't touch the field until Week 14, once Atlanta was completely out of the playoff race. However, he took the QB2 position and sat behind a player with a similar skill set. And that's a big positive. With Marcus Mariota at the helm, Ridder could see how the coaches wanted a game plan to go and then get taught the same way the leading QB was being taught. There was no rewriting the script for the offense, and there was no different way of thinking for Ridder.
Suppose Ridder holds the starting role, which seems like a given. In that case, he'd be going in with a year of experience in the same offense and a good bit of confidence, seeing as the team looks to have put their support behind him by not bringing on someone else to challenge him at the position.
Atlanta did bring in a 5-year veteran and homegrown product, Taylor Heinicke. The former Washington Commander made a name for himself in 2020 as a last-minute substitute starter in the playoffs against the Buccaneers. His ability to not be entirely overwhelmed by the moment brought a lot of attention this game.
Heinicke has already committed to being the best backup he can be for Ridder, further cementing the notion that Ridder is the Chosen One for the season.
Career Stats
Desmond Ridder: 4 Games as Starter / 63.5% Completion/2 TDs /0 INTs
Taylor Heinicke: 25 Games as Starter / 65.9 Completion /34 TDs / 24 INTs
NFL Young Boy In Carolina
In Carolina, the franchise's future is 100% being built around the Panther's 2022 #1 Overall Draft Pick, Bryce Young.
The team gave up some heavy draft assets and, arguably, their best weapon on offense to obtain the right to draft Young. The Panthers traded two 1st Round picks(2023 9th Pick Overall + 2024), two 2nd Round picks (2023 61st Pick + 2025), and WR DJ Moore to the Bears in an attempt to secure their future at the QB position. That's not something a team does without total commitment to a player.
With that commitment, the Panthers have also made plans to protect their investment by not throwing Young into the fire immediately. In comes 13-year vet and Bertrum cosplayer Andy Dalton. The former longtime Bengal and now frequent traveler is on his 4th team in 4 years. This time around, it seems Dalton has been assigned as the placeholder until the team feels Bryce Young is ready to take the reigns. After that, he's a designated mentor. And that should be a great scenario for Young.
Having a quarterback whose been trusted by an organization the way Cincinnati trusted Dalton is huge. The biggest lesson Dalton can help with is teaching Young not to try doing too much. Without putting up gaudy numbers in any category, Andy Dalton did just enough not to cost his team wins early in his career. And that's a lesson most young quarterbacks struggle with. Plus, there shouldn't be any delusions of granger with Dalton looking to revive his career as Panther. At this stage of his career, he's likely accepted his role as a guidance counselor and emergency backup once Young takes the field.
Arguably, the Panthers have the best setup for 2023 and beyond at the QB position. Carolina has picked their guy. There's no QB competition on the horizon. There's little to no chance of controversy. There's an established veteran with real experience and no record of being a complete liability.
The biggest question surrounding the QB position in Carolina is, "How soon until the future starts?" The last quarterback drafted #1 Overall that didn't start in Week 1 was Baker Mayfield in 2018. He got his shot in Week 3. Before that, it was Jared Goff in 2016. And he didn't touch the field until Week 10.
Career Stats
Andy Dalton: 162 Games as Starter / 62.5% Completion / 244 TDs / 144 INTs
Bryce Young: Rookie
Another Savior For The Saints
In the Crescent City, the void left by Drew Bees at the end of the 2020 season is still felt. New Orleans will introduce the 6th player to start at quarterback since Brees' farewell season.
After 9 years in silver and black, Derek Carr will don the black and gold of New Orleans. The team signed Carr to a 4-year/$150 M contract in March. That's a pretty big chunk of change for the former Raider. His largest contract ever in terms of guaranteed money. Seemingly, the team will hitch its wagon to him and see how it goes.
For his career, Carr has been a pretty solid quarterback. He's been reliable with ball security. He's accurate. He hasn't cost his teams games with bad play often. There's no question who the best quarterback on the roster in New Orleans is heading into the season.
New Orleans is still playing host to a couple of the players who were once thought to be the heir apparent behind their former face of the franchise. Former #1 Overall Draft Pick Jameis Winston is in play to be the number one backup to Carr. Winston still feels he has the talent to be a starter in the NFL and that his time may come in the near future. But unless things go terribly for Carr and the organization, that future won't be for at least 3 years. And it's not likely to be in a black and gold uniform. Carr's current contract has a potential out in 2026—Winston's only contracted until the end of the 2023 season.
Taysom Hill, who was also seen as a potential suitor to take the offense's reigns, is also on the roster heading into training camp. Regardless of his classification, he's been used as a passing weapon in the New Orleans offense and must be accounted for. He's only attempted 285 passes. That's still more than Kyle Trask, Bryce Young, and Desmond Ridder. All three may end up starting for their respective teams for most of the season.
Last year, Tampa housed the elder statesmen at QB in the NFC South with Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert on the roster. The Hill, Winston, and Carr trio now have the most experience in the division.
And they’ve also got this guy..
Career Stats
Derek Carr: 142 Games as Starter / 64.6% Completion / 217 TDs/ 99 INTs
Jameis Winston: 80 Games as Starter / 61.% Completion / 139TDs/ 96 INTs
Taysom Hill: 9 Games as Starter / 65.5% Completion / 10 TDs/ 8 INTs
Project Tampa
The Buccaneers may be the only team in the NFC South going into training camp this year with no clear idea of who's expected to be the starter.
While plenty of assumptions have been made by fans and media alike, no one has been dedicated as the QB1 by Coach Todd Bowles or OC Dave Canales—a stark contrast to teams like Carolina and New Orleans. In Tampa, Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield are set to participate in an actual QB competition. And with a new offensive coordinator and new offensive system this year, neither player has a head start, and there's no favoritism to speak of.
Baker Mayfield is the supposed frontrunner if you're going by rumors and media hype. As a former #1 Overall Draft Pick, he's had a much bigger public profile than his Buccaneer counterpart. Mayfield is making his 3rd stop since being ousted from Cleveland just 2 years ago. While it could be easy to write Mayfield off after the up-and-down start to his career, it may be a mistake.
For better or worse, Mayfield is still an enigma. He's learning his 7th offense in his 6th year in the NFL. Beyond the difficulties of learning a new offense every year, Mayfield suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2021, his last year in Cleveland. Maybe to his detriment, he was allowed to play through it as he subsequently put up the 2nd-worst stat line of his career.
Tampa has made no commitment to Mayfield whatsoever. He's on a 1-year deal worth $4M. He'll have to win the starting job convincingly and play well above average to extend his stay in Tampa.
The Buccaneers' other contestant for the starting position is 3rd-year-question mark Kyle Trask. As a 2nd Round Pick, one would've expected Trask to have at least a year or two under his belt as the number two option at the position. But he enters the penultimate year of his rookie contract with his first chance at touching the field for meaningful snaps.
Seeing that he hasn't been prioritized at the QB2 spot, it's fair to question how much he's developed since being drafted under the previous offensive coaching staff. Still, Trask entered the League with a good skill set to play. Any help that he got at the professional level, whether at the Buccaneers' facility or elsewhere, should have heightened his abilities, even if incrementally.
So, Tampa is faced with two projects. One development. The other reclamation. That makes the Buccaneers' QB room the most intriguing in the division.
Career Stats
Baker Mayfield: 72 Games as Starter / 61.4% Completion / 102 TDs/ 64 INTs
Kyle Trask: 0 Games as Starter / 33.3 % Completion / 0 TDs / 0 INTs
