CONTEXT: KILLER OF NARRATIVES
One of the big talking points from last season was slow start of the defense.
It’s usually been mentioned while praising the the overall defensive effort at the end of the season. This has also been heavily influenced by the win or loss result of the games. And oftentimes, that presents an issue when assessing how effective either side of the ball performed.
The defense could put up one helluva effort and certain game circumstances could still make it look like they got scorched because of the final score.
Take the 2018 season opener against that team in New Orleans for instance.
The sAINTs scored 40 points. It’s a fact. But that lacks context.
The final score reads as though the defense got KILLED for 40 points. A slightly closer look shows the game was technically a blowout . Fans donning black and gold were heading for the exits 3mins into the 4th quarter.
Our BUCS were up 48 to 24 to start the final quarter. This was the result of the defense stopping New Orleans on three consecutive drives forcing two punts and a fumble to start the 2nd half of the game. They had allowed New Orleans to score on 4 of their first 6 drives to start the game.
The last 16 points that New Orleans scored came after Defensive Coordinator Mike Smith seemingly had his secondary play off coverage partially due to injuries. It’s not uncommon to see defenses throughout the League back off on aggression after getting sizable lead.
However, the game clock was running and so was the scoreboard. So, the defense surrendering 40 points was what lots of people harped on.
Fast forward to end of the 2019 season.
The notion that the defense suffered from a slow start became almost rampant. It’s true the that the secondary got better as the season went on. That’s to be expected with experience. And the Team was fielding 1st or 2nd year players for the vast majority of the season. But overall, the defense pretty steady all season long.
The run defense started and finished strong. Only 3 games of 100 yards or more were recorded. And only one of those in the first half of the season(vs N.O).
The takeaways were there all season long. 12 of the Team’s 28 turnovers forced were in the first 8 games. The Team ranked 5th for turnovers forced.
Despite being 29th in points allowed(28.1), the defense finished 15th in yards allowed(343.9).
What really sparked the “defense finally got it together” talk was the 4-game win streak that started on the 24th of November in Atlanta and ended December 21st against Houston.
This also started the hope that not only the defense, but the entire Team had turned the corner. Well, one again, context was ignored in favour of fanfare. Very few made mention that the opponents were subpar at best. At was oftentimes seen as being “too negative” to point this out. “Hate” is what the young folks called it.
Here’s a look at the opponents and where they ranked defensively. As well as how they fared against the BUCS:
*(against BUCS)
This also brings back the popular narrative during and after the 2016 season where some claimed the defense played well for only 5 games which resulted in a win streak. Truth is, the defense had played consistently throughout the season and the win streak came when the offense didn’t turn the ball over as frequently. Then head coach, Dirk Koetter expressed this sentiment several times before, during and after the win streak. During that particular stretch, the offense only turned the ball over multiple times in 1 game.
There were at least two offensive turnovers in all but one of the Team’s five losses prior to that.
Here’s a look at the just what the Defense was up against last season.
Same story.
Same “slow start by the defense” narrative.
Same win streak tendency followed by over-top-hype and false hope.
Same result.
Listed is the Points scored against the Defense, the Final score for the opponent(in parentheses), and Context that led to the Final Score:
Week 1 17 vs 49ers (31) LOSS—-2 INTs/1 Fumble lost —13 points off (2)Pick-6's
Week 2 14 vs Carolina (14) WIN—-1 INT
Week 3 32 vs NYG(32) LOSS—-1 INT
Week 4 32 vs LAR(40) WIN—-1 INT —8 points off 1 Pick-6
Week 5 31 vs NO(31) LOSS—-0 INTs/
Week 6 37 vs CAR(37) LOSS—-5 INTs/2 fumbles lost—17 points off short fields
Week 8 27 vs TEN(27) LOSS—-2 INTs/1 fumbles lost—14 points off short fields
Week 9 40 vs SEA(40) LOSS—-1 Fumble Lost— 3 points off short fields
Week 10 27 vs ARI(27) WIN—-2 INTs/ 1 Fumble lost—3 points off short fields
Week 11 27 vs NO(34) LOSS—-4 INTs—14 points off short fields including 1 Pick-6
Week 12 22 vs ATL(22) WIN—-2 INTs—7 points off short fields
Week 13 11 vs JAX(11) WIN—-1 Fumble lost resulting in FG..Turnover on Downs —11 points off short FIELDS
Week 14 27 vs IND(35) WIN—-3 INTs/1 Fumble—17 points off short fields including 1 Pick-6
Week 15 17 vs DET(17) WIN—-1 INT(resulted in PUNT)
Week 16 16 vs HOU(23) LOSS—-4 INTs(1-Pick 6)/1 Fumble—17 points off turnovers/short fields including 1 Pick-6
Week 17 22 vs ATL(28) LOSS—-2 INTs(1-Pick 6) 1 Fumble—12 points off short fields including 1 Pick-6
This isn’t revisionist history, by the way.
It was addressed a while back……Here.
This is revisiting history.
Here’s to hoping we can all take a better look at context instead of blanket stats going forward.
And may we study progress instead of predictions.
Go BUCS, dammit!!
