On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will enter what will most likely be the most hostile environment it will face all season long. The Bucs are facing their division rival New Orleans Saints.

This has been labeled both a “grudge match” and the proverbial “revenge game” for several reasons. None more notable than it being the first time the BUCS get to face former franchise QB hopeful Jameis Winston in a game where he’s expected to get meaningful snaps. He made a cameo in the NFC Divisional Playoff last season participating in a trick play.

Trick play or not, it resulted in a touchdown for New Orleans and gave them a 13-10 lead. And that was more than enough for many New Orleans fans and longtime JW loyalists to bask in the thought of sweet revenge. But it wasn’t to be.

That 56 yard pass would be followed up with only one more touchdown for New Orleans while the BUCS went on to score another 20 points and end the dreams of a Super Bowl sunset for then starter Drew Brees.

Now, as the starter of a 4-2 team, that former starting QB is looking to put all the “lovey-dovey stuff behind” and get on with his aspirations of beating the BUCS twice a year every year for the rest of his career. So, how does that team from New Orleans match up against the BUCS?

That new Sean Payton offense in the Crescent City looks about as soft as crescent rolls. Going into Sunday’s game, the sAints have a total of 18 touchdowns. Their starting QB has accounted for 13 of those with the vast majority coming in two games. In Week 1, he threw 5 touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers. In the Week 5 matchup against that team in Washington, he threw for 4 touchdowns. It’s often said that Week 1 in the NFL is a liar. And there may be some truth behind that. The Packers have since become a relatively solid passing defense as they now rank 7th in passing yards given up and 19th in passing touchdowns allowed. However, Washington’s defense is at the bottom of the barrel in both categories.

The passing game of the sAints is centered around Alvin Kamara who leads the team in receptions(25) and touchdowns(4). This isn’t a great recipe for season-long success as Kamara is also the starting RB.

Behind Kamara in receptions is 2nd year WR Marquez Callaway with 16 catches and 3 touchdowns on the year. Callaway is a solid threat. At 6ft 2in and 204lbs, he’s got a physical stature similar to Chris Godwin. But he doesn’t have Godwin’s hands or run-after-catch ability. Outside of two miracle hail-mary plays that resulted in touchdowns, one against New England and another against Washington, Callaway hasn’t been much of an impact player for that offense as a receiver.

And that may not be on him whatsoever. The sAints have passed the ball fewer times than any team in the entire NFL.

Now, some may say that’s due to them missing their WR1 in slant specialist Michael Thomas. And there’s definitely some validity to that theory. And they let their WR2 Emanuel Sander leave in free agency as well. There’s also the notion that offensive evil mastermind Sean Payton knows he needs to limit his QB’s opportunities to throw away the game. Something he’s seen over 5 years as an opposing coach to the still-enigmatic QB.

When you don't trust your QB, you do everything to hide him. First and foremost, limit his chances to lose the game by taking the ball out of his hands early and often. Going into Week 8, @Saints QB Winston has thrown almost 100 fewer passes than any other QB in the NFC South.

Yet, he still has the lowest completion % at 60.3.

For the first time under Payton, the sAints are on pace to finish the regular season throwing the ball under 50% of their possessions. In 2006 with Drew Brees coming off shoulder surgery as a free agent, Payton’s offense threw the ball 54.6% of the time. Even when Brees was much older and missing 4 games due to broken ribs, the New Orleans offense spent 51% of their time throwing the ball.

But, thangs done changed.

And it may not get any better going against a BUCS defense that has been on a bit of a tear. Despite a shaky start on defense, particularly the secondary due to injury, the BUCS defense has found itself playing at a high level once again.

The pass rush has been consistent all season despite not having the sack numbers to show for it. But, in recent weeks with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul, the pressure and the sacks have racked up. And against that former starting QB, getting pressure will be paramount in getting him to make some of those habitual mistakes that made him a free agent in 2020.

One thing to look for in this game is the right side of the pass rush. New Orleans’ James Hurst is gonna have his hands full. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and the aforementioned Pierre-Paul will be the guys to keep an eye on. Mostly because, historically, Winston has been most vulnerable when pressure comes from his right side. This doesn’t make mean pressure automatically results in sacks. But, his footwork is still sloppy and he doesn’t have the mechanics that allow him to make clean throws on the move going to his left.

He’s been sacked 11 times so far this season. 7 of them have come from the right side. This should conjure up some memories of Demar Dotson and J.R. Sweezy from a few years ago for the fans that paid attention.

As much as anything else, when he’s pressured from his right side, Winston routinely makes bad decisions. And that’s what teams banked on for the 5 seasons he donned the Pewter and Red. Having 2 to 3 opportunities a game to get a turnover and change the outcome.

Winston has been notoriously bad at overlooking the linebackers in coverage as well. If Todd Bowles gets some pressure early on and gets to mix up his more exotic looks, Devin White’s pass coverage rating may take a big jump come Sunday. He came away with a bit INT in the last meeting. He just may get another.

It doesn’t bode well for New Orleans that their starting LG Andrus Peat is missing this one either. It’s not like Shaq Barrett wasn’t gonna trouble from the left side already. Barrett’s coming into the game leading the team with 5.5 sacks and 8 QB Hits. Calvin Throckmorton, backup left guard for the sAints, is gonna have a helluva time deciding who to help. Does he try to help clean up Barrett to the left? Or does he make an attempt to get his hands on Vita Vea who’s been making a highlight reel of eating up double teams by centers and guards all season?

The strong suit of the defense has once again been at the forefront this season. Against New Orleans, it’s gonna the key to making it an opportunistic day for the guys in the secondary. If the BUCS can get the sAints to bail on the rushing attempts which they’ve relied on so heavily this year, the game can quickly fall into dangerous territory for Sean Payton. His usage of quick screens which have just been an extension of the run game still involves his one true weapon in Alvin Kamara. As stated before, Kamara, as a running back, leads his team in both receptions and carries. And with a 3.7 average yards per carry, he’s been far less efficient than he’s been in years past. He’s been run into the ground the first 6 weeks.

Hence, the addition of Mark Ingram this past week. He’ll be used to spell notoriously hard-to-tackle swiss army knife wearing #41. With Ingram, New Orleans hopes it can get a push to challenge the League’s #1 rush defense. While Ingram’s no stranger to BUCS fans and coaches, he’s not faced a defense like what he’s about to face Sunday. Not from Tampa. Ingram’s 294 yards this season shouldn’t give anyone a second thought about whether or not the BUCS can stifle the New Orleans run attack. Even though the defense has given up of few more yards than usual in the past few games, the addition of Ingram should mean very little as far as the plan of attack.

Another thing to keep an eye on is Winston’s newfound love for scrambling out of the pocket. Coming into the game, he’s New Orlean’s 2nd-leading rusher in both attempts and yards.

Seriously.

Through 6 games, JW has 28 rushing attempts. The most he’s ever had in Tampa was 59 in a season. This is something that can and, most likely will, play into the hands of the Bowles-led defense.

Winston isn’t built to run the ball. It’s very much like relying on Tom Brady to run the ball at his age now. It’s fun to watch and see what he can get away with. But, it’s downright dangerous. With Winston, his propensity for trying to get away with too much after just barely escaping in previous attempts tends to catch up with him rather quickly. Plus, he’s ALWAYS been a high risk when it comes to fumbling the ball. 52 career fumbles and counting.

Based on what the BUCS have in their favour on the defensive side of the ball, this should be a game the BUCS win. But bad things happen to good people. And that team from New Orleans can absolutely find themselves celebrating at the of this game.

It’s gonna take a whole lot to go wrong for the BUCS. But it’s not nearly impossible.

The BUCS defense has to come out and be disciplined and tighten up on the tackling which had gotten them in trouble earlier this season. If they do that, it could easily lead to big trouble for the folks in New Orleans. The defense has kept 4 of its 7 opponents from scoring the NFL average of 24 points so far this season. I’m thinking it’ll be 5 of 8 come next week.