BUCS vs ‘BOYS Preview
With a one-game lead in the Division and a four-game winning streak on the line, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into Arlington, TX, to face a desperate and potentially dangerous Dallas Cowboys team. There's a lot to like about the BUCS' chances of walking out of "Jerry's World" with a win, but there's a real possibility that there will be some challenges.
PLAY UNDER CONTROL
First and foremost, the BUCS play controlled football. "Controlled Football" entails multiple components, including taking extra care to focus on this one game. Dialing in on the game drive-by-drive and snap-by-snap made games like the ones against the Commanders, Lions, Eagles, and Giants feel so impressive. While the games weren't perfect, the Team felt like it was out to make a statement in each match. And that's the mindset that needs to show up at AT&T Stadium for a Sunday Night Game.
Another key aspect of controlled football is minimizing mental mistakes, such as penalties, which can halt a good offensive drive or needlessly extend a defensive one. Making sure penalties stay at a minimum will be huge. This year, the average penalties per game for a team is 6.4(9th). The BUCS average 6.1. On the other hand, Dallas is one of the League's worst, with 7.4(29th). While losing the war on penalties generally won't automatically kill the chances of a win, it does indicate undisciplined/unfocused play, which can be difficult to overcome unless you have a superstar X-factor who can make up for them in some way. For reference, Baltimore is the most penalized team in the League, averaging 8.4 penalties a game. They committed 13 penalties for 105 yards against the Cowboys in their 28-25 victory in Week 4.
There's no bigger danger to the Team's success than the Team getting in its own way. While this applies to both sides of the ball, it's especially true for the offensive side. The Team has turned the ball over mulitple times in each of the last three games. While it's easy for some to overlook this because the results were all wins, it's a hazardous practice for a team with Playoff aspirations.
For all of Dallas' shortcomings, they've forced 19 turnovers on defense. They take away the ball at an average of 1.4 per game. The Buccaneers offense just happens to turn the ball over 1.4 times a game. No bueno.
Twelve of Dallas' takeaways have come by way of interceptions. Baker Mayfield has thrown at least two interceptions in two of the last three games.
Again, this hasn't been a big issue because the wins have overshadowed the mistakes. But it's a key component to keeping opponents in games when they probably shouldn't be. Carolina(7) and Las Vegas (8) fielded defenses that were below average in terms of interceptions, and both teams were given opportunities to keep the games close because they capitalized on interceptions that gave them a short field to score. Turnovers and other mental mistakes kept the two lesser teams in the game. Of their combined eight scoring drives, only 2 were longer than 50 yards(57yd FG-LV, 60yd TD-CAR). While the BUCS eventually pulled away from the Raiders in the 4th Quarter, it took two possessions in OT to put the Panthers to sleep.
Against Dallas, winning the turnover battle is going to be paramount. The Cowboys have won three of their last four, and they've won the turnover battle in each win by taking the ball away at least two times.
RUN IT
Controlling the clock is one way the BUCS offense can hurt the chances of the Cowboys pulling off an upset. The best way to control the clock is with an effective run game, which the Buccaneers do possess.
Dallas ranks 29th in yards allowed on the ground. In their eight losses, they've allowed 171 yards on average. They gave up over 220+ yards to both San Francisco and Baltimore. That may not be all that shocking since both teams have notable outstanding running threats. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for 238 rush yards, and those two can do that any given Sunday as we've seen in Tampa. But the Cowboys faced San Francisco sans Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers' Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and Rircky Persall got 110 yards rushing, and while capable, none of them are comparable to the Ravens duo.
With a capable triple threat of running backs available, OC Liam Coen should be salivating thinking about what Irving, White, and Tucker could do against the Cowboys. Irving is a potential gamebreaker by himself. He can break a big run at any time. He's got six carries for 20+ yards, including a 43-yard run against Carolina in Week 13 and a 54-yard run against the Chargers in Week 15. Rachaad White has shown to be a productive but opportunistic runner as well. As a runner, he'd be best utilized taking snaps after Dallas has gotten loosened up with a heaping helping of Irving. White tends to do his best work late in the game and while running between the tackles. If Coen sees fit, he could also look to Sean Tucker, who has shown he can carry the load, as he showed back in Week 6 in New Orleans. Tucker, like Iriving, can break for big runs either on the inside or bouncing it outside.
Dallas has given up the most yards on runs outside of the tackles. Opponents run on the outside 60.7% of the time. The right side of their defensive line has seen the most damage. Opponents have gained 392 yards running to the outside of the left tackle. This bodes well for Bucky Irving, who has been equally dangerous running outside of tackles as he's been running on the interior. He's gained 428 yards while running behind or outside the tackles and 424 yards running between them.
Dallas' inability to stop the run stems from their constant overpursuing. Whether it's an attempt to get to the QB on early downs or flat-out flying by the ball carrier, the Cowboys defenders have a recurring issue of going in the wrong direction fast. If Coen can get the running game going early, especially on the outside, it could get Dallas into their bad habit of chasing the previous play, leaving them out of position for some big runs.
Source: Pro.NFL.com
2 Short, 1 Deep
In addition to having multiple RBs who can stress Dallas with the ability to stretch the run game to the outside, Liam Coen has a stable of RBs who excel in catching short passes and turning them into big plays. In the passing game, the Cowboys struggle mightily with screen plays. They average 10.2 yards per reception to receivers coming from the backfield. Of the 50 plays when RBs or WRs catch the ball out of the backfield, 13(26%) have resulted in gains of 15+ yards.
With a few successful passes to the RBs, the Dallas secondary could start peeking in the backfield and looking to make tackles rather than cover downfield. That opens the door for Mike Evans to either chew up the middle of the field or go streaking down the sideline.
Similar to the Buccaneers' issue on defense, the Cowboys have rotated multiple CBs throughout the season. The Cowboys have had 7 different cornerbacks play over 150 snaps this season, the most by any team in the NFL. With Trevon Diggs out with a knee injury, the Cowboys don't have a player who could realistically be expected to cover Evans in man coverage. And with their struggle to maintain discipline after a few successful plays by the offense, there's a high probability of Baker Mayfield having some opportunities to Evans down the field. The Cowboys have only given up deep pass plays (20+ yards in the air) ten times this season. However, they’ve allowed three of those catches to go for 50+ yards, including two that went for over 80.
With a little bit of tact, OC Liam Coen could set up Mike Evans for a big day against a weakened secondary. Evans’ quest for another 1,000 yard-season is still within reach. Against Dallas, it’s not unreasonable to believe he could eclipse the 83.7 average he needs over the next three games to make it 1K. Dallas has given up 100+ yards to a receiver in three of their last four games. Evans has put up over 100 yards once in his five matchups against the Cowboys. In his first game facing Dallas, he went for 126 yards.
Defense Can't Be Comfortable
While the Cowboys are relatively short on offensive threats, they do have star receiver CeeDee Lamb who can be utilized all over the field. He's constantly being put in motion to get the opposition to shift and cause confusion. The BUCS don't have a CB who matches up with him favorably in man-to-man coverage. With this in mind, Buccaneers fans can expect plenty of "soft coverage" to limit potential explosive plays and keep everything in front of them as long as possible.
Lamb has only posted two 100-yard games this season. The BUCS defense hasn't allowed a 100+ yard receiver in the last 5 games. Yet, much like with the offense, the defense can't lose focus at any point and allow Dallas to get comfortable. Lamb may be the big name on the team, but a few bad plays by the defense could open the door for some lesser-known talent. Tampa doesn't want another KhaDarel Hodge situation.
Source: Pro.NFL.com
On the ground, RB Rico Dowdle can be a menace. He's averaging 5.0 yards per carry for the year, and he's gone over 100 yards in the last three games. Granted, two of the last three opponents have ranked 31st and 32nd in rushing yards allowed. Still, the work had to be done, and he did it. Lots of times, confidence comes from success against lesser opponents.
Dowdle is the first undrafted player to run for 100+ yards in three consecutive games since Arian Foster in 2014.
Dowdle has done most of his damage between the tackles. He's gained 520 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry when running inside the tackles. Against the BUCS, with Vita Vea middle, the challenge is expected to be a bit steeper than what he's seen in his previous four opponents. Of Dowdle's 23 runs of 10+ yards, he's run to the left of the offensive line or up the middle 19 times. Whether or not that's an indication of the weaker side of the line being on the right side or his own personal tendency, it's something the BUCS could key on to slow down his recent uptick in production.
The outlooK
The Dallas Cowboys are a dangerous team. While mathematically, they haven’t been officially eliminated from the Playoff Picture, it’s going to take a near-miracle for them to find a win. They don’t have anything to lose. Some of their players are already dealing with after-the-season drama and frustrations. For some, that may be a reason to lay down and play soft and safe. For others, it’s a green light to all out and either put on outstanding performances to build up their resume and stature or take out their frustrations knowing a one or two-game suspension won’t hurt them in any way.
The BUCS can’t let their guard down and be happy that their at the doorstep of the Playoffs. They still have to kick the door in and walk through. I don’t ever want to contribute to the fear-mongering campaign many subscribe to, but there’s a bit of reality that should be taken into consideration. The last time the Buccaneers faced Dallas, Carolina, and New Orleans to finish the season was in 2016. On a Sunday night in December, the Team went into Dallas with an 8-6 record with a chance to make the Playoffs still in tact. The BUCS went into the 4th quarter with a 3-point lead 20-17. The 4th quarter began with an interception by then-quarterback Jameis Winston. The following offensive possession resulted in three consecutive 3-and-outs and another interception. The final score was 20-26.
The BUCS are in the final quarter of the season with a chance to make the post season. They cannot give the opportunity away by looking ahead and playing out of control. They’ve got a lead and they’ve got momentum. But the Team has to finish. And that finish begins with taking care of business in Dallas.
